Kentucky Derby Handicap

For those of you tuning in to read (A) a rant, (B) adorable anecdotes concerning my offspring, (C) incoherent rambling or (D) all of the above, you may now stop reading.  Because this year, I'm putting my Kentucky Derby handicap commentary down in writing.  To be fair, incoherent rambling may be involved.

Disclaimer:  I have not actually picked a Derby Winner since Real Quiet in 1998.  (I may have picked Big Brown in 2008, but I don't think so.)  Also, the Derby is notorious for doing the exact opposite of what everyone thinks it will do.

Disclaimer #2:  The field hasn't actually been set yet.  This is just based on who has enough points to be in it this year.  P.S. The point system is about as screwed up as the electoral college and biased against fillies.  Shocker!  Hey, I did end up ranting!

This is based on ESPN's top ten picks as they rank them (not me).  I probably should go with the Daily Racing Form but it's not that different and it's easier to find things on ESPN.com which is a crime. Am I allowed one more caveat, or have I used those up?  Most of these horses don't actually have jockeys yet.  It's kind of crazy, but a lot of them had the same rider, so now we have to wait to see which mount that rider chooses.

1. ORB - Won the Fountain of Youth and Florida Derby.
Why I Don't Like Him:  He's still in Florida.  I don't like any horses who haven't gotten their butts to Kentucky yet.  Travel is stress.  Stress is not good.  Reason #2, Velazquez rode him in both his wins and Velazquez is sticking with trainer Todd Pletcher in the Derby and riding Verrazano.  I trust Velazquez more than I trust ESPN and the crazy point system.

2.  VERRAZANO - Won the Tampa Bay Derby
Why I Don't Like Him:  I don't give a whole lot of credit to the TB Derby as a prep race, but other than that, I don't have a whole heck of lot of reason to dislike him. Just don't see it.  He will probably win.  Velazquez obviously thinks so.

3.  REVOLUTIONARY - Won the Louisiana Derby
Why I Like Him:  So Costellano picked Normandy Invasion instead, but Calvin Borel immediately picked Revolutionary up.  Great jockey (had won the derby 3 times in recent years) and great trainer (Pletcher again).  Also, he's in Kentucky.

4.  NORMANDY INVASION - 2nd in the Wood Memorial
Why I Like Him:  Seems odd, since he didn't win a single prep race, but Javier Costellano picked him over Revolutionary and as I previously stated, I trust jockeys.  He will also get two workouts in Kentucky prior to the Derby. However, this is pretty much just a gut feeling.

5.  GOLDENCENTS - Won the Santa Anita Derby
Why I Don't Like Him:  The SAD is a fantastic race.  But there were only nine horses in it.  It was completely clean.  And this horse is still sitting in California.  Won't even look at him.

6.  ITSMYLUCKYDAY - Won the Holy Bull Stakes
Why I Don't Like Him:  He's still in Florida and doesn't plan on getting to Kentucky until the 26th.  Otherwise, just not impressed.

7.  OVERANALYZE - Won the Arkansas Derby
Why I Don't Like Him:  He came in 5th in the Gotham.  See below.  He is already in Kentucky though.

8.  JAVA'S WALK - Won the Blue Grass
Why I Like Him:   I have a soft spot for the Blue Grass despite no horse winning from that prep races in eons and it being a synthetic track.  He also came 2nd to Verrazano in the Tampa Bay which was his first race.  He's only raced twice.  He's really fresh and already in Kentucky.  Also, you should see how wide he had to make that final quarter turn and still won.  Yeah, I have to say I'm leaning towards this guy.

9.  VYJACK - Won the Gotham
Why I Don't Like Him:  Who the hell cares about the Gotham?  No one.  That's who.  He came in 3rd in the Wood and now has mucus in his lungs that he's receiving treatments for.  How is this horse even in the top 10?  The only thing he currently has going for him is jockey Garrett Gomez.  Mark my words, Gomez will not be riding this horse in the Derby.

10.  WILL TAKE CHARGE - Won the Rebel Stakes
Why I Like Him:  Trainer D. Wayne Lukas (racing god) had him skip the Arkansas Derby to stay fresh, which is a decision I like.  One of the horses already in Kentucky.

So here are my Early Picks:
1. Java's Walk
2. Normandy Invasion
3. Revolutionary
4. Will Take Charge

And here is my long shot.  Oxbow.  This horse does have enough points to be in the Derby.  He has finished no less than fourth in the four graded stakes he has entered, including a second place finish to Will Take Charge in the Rebel.  Also trained by Lukas.  He had Jon Court aboard when he won the Lecomte and Mike Smith in the Rebel.  Great jockeys that will definitely be riding someone in the Derby.  Here is the interesting fact.  KentuckyDerby.com has Gary Stevens listed as his jockey.  Um...Gary Stevens has been retired since 2005!  If this is for real and Stevens (my second favorite jockey behind retired Jerry Bailey) really gets on him, there is no way I wouldn't put money on that horse.  Gary Stevens could be living in a retirement home and just come out of a coma and I would put money on him.

5th Annual Kentucky Derby Party

Another Kentucky Derby has come and gone. If anyone thinks weeks and hours of preparation for an event that takes a little over two minutes is crazy, you are not alone. There may have been a few moments last week when the words "Is it too late to cancel this thing?" were definitely uttered.

Not sure why this year seemed so difficult for us, but I have a feeling it all leads back to the crappy weather we've been having and dreading that we were going to have seventy people jammed into our house (not counting crying infants).

Up until two hours before people started showing up we actually were going to go purchase a patio heater to go with the one we were borrowing from Scott's parents. Then changed our minds because it had been so pleasant. Then kicked ourselves because it started to cool off again.

In the end, when it comes together and everyone is having a good time, it is all worth it.

Oh and there was the small confusion of me thinking I had it starting at 4:30 and the Evite actually said 4:00. Woops. Don't think too many people noticed that Scott was still in the shower when they showed up. Sorry, Altens.

Speaking of them, shout out to Paul for all the trouble he went to to get extra hats for the party and then I never forced anyone to put them on. Note for next year. If you show up without a hat, you are wearing one of his fancy thrift store finds. Don't say I didn't warn you! It's no longer going to be optional....I'm not kidding. You may think that I'm kidding...but I'm not.

For the past couple of years I have wanted to do sack races for the kids, but we kept having such wet springs that the back yard is never dry enough. Enter the spring of eternal rain, crushing our hopes again, until we thought...hey, we have a front yard. We spend so much time in the back, we always forget we have a nice front yard that doesn't reduce to a bog at this time of year.

So the races were on, and (I think) a success.

Colts and Fillies, 4-5 Years - Winner: Nick of Time from Mitchell Run

Colts and Fillies, 6 Years and Up - Winner: Marlo Brandon from Mitchell Run

(Yes, there has been an inquiry into performance enhancers at Mitchell Run)

Colts and Fillies, 2-3 Years - Winner: Avatar from DeMooy Country Club

(although there's been a lot of contesting due to the fact she wasn't actually jumping, but somehow managing to run while wearing a pillow case.)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KZCDg5RwpUM

So here it is by the numbers:

5 hours to come up with Sack Race program (never on company time, of course)

1 vacation day

15 minutes to fix the back fence that the neighbors have been complaining about

2 of their rugs still lying out back by their pool

101 times ask ourselves where we will put everybody if it downpours or is only 40 degrees outside

1 day before party our new roof is completed

49 adults

20 children

3 infants

1 dog locked in our bedroom that peed on our rug

30 pounds of pork shoulder (dry rubbed and shredded)

1 full sheet of Fragapan's cheese pizza

4 cases of beer

5 bottles of wine

1 economy size bottle of Maker's Mark + 6 bottles of water + 3 bunches of crushed mint = my cool new dispenser full of Mint Juleps

1 person that actually likes Mint Juleps

1 bite of summer sausage rolled in cracked pepper = 2 glasses of wine to wash it down

1 and 1/2 hour late, enter Joe Koval

1 sundress + 1 pair of ear muffs = Morgan's amazing fashion statement

19 horses = 38 popsicle sticks = 2 draws of Animal Kingdom = both drawn by the hosts = first time we have EVER won ANYTHING at our own party (sorry)

3 cubic feet of sand outside of the sandbox

4 items left at our house by the Kerbers

1 garbage and 1 recycle can pushed to maximum capacity (pretty sure both have garbage AND recyclables)

2 hour nap on Sunday afternoon

To whoever made the garlic dipping sauce for the yummy bread...I love you....Scott does not.

To whoever made the other dipping sauce (also 50% consumed by yours truly) for the equally yummy bread...I have your bowl.

To those of you with which I never got a chance to hold an actual conversation...there's always next year.